Pipeline Risk Management
By W. Kent Muhlbauer
Here is a program that might change how you operate or design your pipeline systems! Using risk management concepts, PRC allows you to divide your pipeline system(s) into sections, gather meaningful data on each section, and assess the risks of each section. A host of analytical routines then allows you to slice and dice the data to get information out of the numbers.
You then have a powerful decision support tool: a disciplined, consistent basis to help answer so many vital questions: How does risk change if I increase my operating pressure? Is a close-interval pipe-to-soil potential survey the better thing to do this year, or is money better spent in doing a hydrostatic test in two years? Is it worth it to route this line around those wetlands? Should I spend money on air patrol or on painting my valve stations? Does operator training change my risk as much as public education programs?
So what can you do with this software? How about this for a partial list:
- find your highest (and lowest) risk areas—then prioritize your maintenance
- measure the impact of changing conditions along the pipeline, such as population encroachments
- measure the impact of changing pressure, product, or any activity (do 'what-if' studies)
- measure the relative value of all tasks that you are presently performing or are considering
- decide how to best allocate your resources (a spending plan is born!)
- monitor your regulatory compliance (or build your own benchmark comparison standard)
- analyze pipelines before they are built
- compare pipeline route alternatives
The author emphasizes that pipeline risk management is not new. It has been done for as long as pipelines have existed. The only change is that now, in today's more challenging environments, a more formalized discipline is required. This is not magic or a black box. All rationale and assumptions are carefully documented in the program and accompanying textbook. And, best of all, its simple and intuitive! No fancy algorithms, detailed statistical analysis, or complex theories are needed . . . but, on the other hand, they can be included if the user wants them! You get useful, meaningful information almost right away, yet may continue to see things in new ways every time you examine your data.
The accompanying manual says that good risk management and resource allocation modelling can be done on paper and pencil or maybe on spreadsheet software. True. But the tasks become so simple and more powerful with the right tool. And PRC is a tool that is obviously designed by practitioners themselves. Attention to detail in data entry routines and the comprehensive support routines show this. For example, not only can you build 'standards' to help you find non-compliance issues with your operations, you can also make these standards automatically adjust to changing conditions along the pipeline like population density or soil conditions. We're getting close to "expert system" modelling here!
Other features include:
- the ability to customize the risk variables, weightings, and almost all other aspects of the model
- establishing cost/benefit relationships and tracking costs of risk-reducing activities
- display data in any of 7 different graph styles
- add new data fields to the database in case you want to track more information of your choice
- instantly build customized tables of any input or calculated data
- design and save complex searches: for example, a search might ask: "show me all pipeline sections in natural gas service, operated at over 500 psig, with a corrosion score of less than 50, and located in east Texas". Now, you can work with just these records!
- calculate pipe burst pressures and safety factors
- calculate spill sizes with a fixed-assumption algorithm
- user-customizable database of pipeline products
- complete on-line help routines
This package has features not found in software ten times the cost. This is a must have for all pipeline operators, designers, insurers, and most anyone who manages in the pipeline industry.
Sample Screens (for an enlarged view, click on an image)
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Requirements: |
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4Mb RAM, 2Mb Hard disk space, Windows® 3.1, 95, 98, NT, 2000, XP |
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Video preview available: |
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$25 processing fee required in advance that can be credited towards purchase. |
Sample Screen Shots
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